Journal of Travel Medicine

AimsWe aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel from a country with a very low prevalence of COVID-19 infection (Australia) to a COVID-19-free country (New Zealand; [NZ]), along with the likely impact of various control measures for passengers and cabin crew. MethodsA stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilized. It was populated with data for both countries and parameters for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and c...

BackgroundAs of 4 September 2020, a total of 53,996 monkeypox cases were confirmed globally. Currently, most monkeypox cases are concentrated in Europe and the Americas, while many countries outside these regions are also continuously observing imported cases. We aimed to estimate the potential global risk of monkeypox importation and consider hypothetical scenarios of travel restrictions by varying passenger volumes via airline travel network. MethodPassenger volume data for the airline networ...

To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission risks from international travellers, many countries currently use a combination of up to 14 days of self-quarantine on arrival and testing for active infection. We used a simulation model of air travellers arriving to the UK from the EU or the USA and the timing of their stages of infection to evaluate the ability of these strategies to reduce the risk of seeding community transmission. We find that a quarantine period of 8 days on arrival with a PCR test on d...

BackgroundIncreased connectivity via air travel can facilitate the geographic spread of infectious diseases. The number of travelers alone does not explain risk; passenger origin and destination will also influence risk of disease introduction and spread. We described trends in international air passenger numbers and connectivity between countries with different capacities to detect and respond to infectious disease threats. MethodsWe used the Fragile States Index (FSI) as an annual measure of ...

International travel poses substantial risks for continued introduction of SARS-CoV-2. As of the 17th August 2020, travellers from 12 of the top 25 countries flying into the UK are required to self-isolate for 14 days. We estimate that 895 (CI: 834-958) infectious travellers arrive in a single week, of which 87% (779, CI: 722-837) originate from countries on the UK quarantine list. We compare alternative measures to the 14 day self-isolation (78.0% effective CI: 74.4-81.6) which could be more fe...

IntroductionThe assessment of empirical epidemiological data is needed to assess the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in aircraft settings. This review summarises reported contact- tracing data and evaluates the secondary attack rates (SAR) and factors associated with SARS- CoV-2 transmission in aircraft, to provide insight for future decision making in the context of future respiratory pandemics. MethodsThis scoping literature review assessed studies published between December 2020 to November 2...

IntroductionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected the aviation industry. Existing protocols have relied on scientifically questionable evidence and might not lead to the optimal balance between public health safety and airlines financial viability. ObjectiveTo explore the implementation feasibility of Thai Airways International protocol from the perspectives of passengers and aircrews. DesignAn online questionnaire survey of passengers and an in-depth interview with aircrew...

With the advent of rapid international travel, disease can now spread between nations faster than ever. As such, when outbreaks occur in foreign states, pressure mounts to reduce the risk of importing cases to the home nation. In a previous paper, we developed a model to investigate the potential effectiveness of deploying screening at airports during outbreaks of influenza, SARS, and Ebola. We also applied the model to the current COVID-19 outbreak. This model simulated the testing of traveller...

We use recent data and research results to approximate the probability that an air traveler in coach will contract Covid-19 on a US domestic flight two hours long, both when all coach seats are full and when all but middle seats are full. The point estimates we reach based on data from late June 2020 are 1 in 4,300 for full flights and 1 in 7,700 when middle seats are kept empty. These estimates are subject to both quantifiable and nonquantifiable sources of uncertainty, and sustain known margin...

ObjectiveTo assess the efficacy of policies designed to reduce the risk of international travelers importing SARS-CoV-2 into a country. MethodWe developed a simulation model and compared mandatory quarantine, testing, and combined quarantine and testing. We assessed the sensitivity of policy effectiveness to the timing of testing, compliance with quarantine and isolation, and other factors. ResultsIn the base scenario, a 2-day quarantine reduced more risk than testing alone. The effectiveness ...

We critically appraise the literature regarding in-flight transmission of a range of respiratory infections to provide an evidence base for public health policies for contact tracing passengers, given the limited pathogen-specific data for SARS-CoV-2 currently available. Using PubMed, Web of Science, and other databases including preprints, we systematically reviewed evidence of in-flight transmission of infectious respiratory illnesses. A meta-analysis was conducted where total numbers of perso...

HighlightThe global outbreak caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. As the number of imported SARS-CoV-2 cases is on the rise in Brazil, we use incidence and historical air travel data to estimate the most important routes of importation into the country.

Travel destinations, particularly large resorts in otherwise small communities, risk infectious disease outbreaks from an influx of visitors who may import infections during peak seasons. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted this risk in the context of global travel and has raised questions about appropriate interventions to curb the potential spread of infectious disease at tourist destinations. In Colorado, the initial outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 in the state occurred in ski communities, leading to l...

Travel and physical distancing interventions have been implemented across the World to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, but studies are needed to quantify the effectiveness of these measures across regions and time. Timely population mobility data were obtained to measure travel and contact reductions in 135 countries or territories. During the 10 weeks of March 22 - May 30, 2020, domestic travel in study regions has dramatically reduced to a median of 59% (interquartile range [IQR] 43% - 73%) of...

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic began in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and continues to spread globally, with exported cases confirmed in 28 countries at the time of writing. During the interval between February 19 and 23, 2020, Iran reported its first 43 cases with eight deaths. Three exported cases originating in Iran were identified, suggesting a underlying burden of disease in that country than is indicated by reported cases. A large epidemic in Iran could further fuel global di...

As of 1 March 2020, Iran has reported 987 COVID-19 cases and including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan and Pakistan) have reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. We used air travel data and the cases from Iran to other Middle East countries and estimated 16533 (95% CI: 5925, 35538) COVID-19 cases in Iran by 25 February, before UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.

BackgroundThe coronavirus (COVID-19) is now a global concern because of its higher transmission capacity and associated adverse consequences including death. The reproductive number of COVID-19 provides an estimate on possible extent of the transmission. This study aims to provide the average reproductive number of COVID-19 based on available global level evidence. MethodsWe searched three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Science Direct) to find studies reported the reproductive number of...

AimWe aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks in a case study COVID-free destination country, associated with shore leave for merchant ship crews. MethodsA stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. It was populated with parameters for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, shipping characteristics, and plausible control measures. ResultsWhen no control interventions were in place, an outbreak of COVID-19 in our case study destination countr...

Following the outbreak of novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) or COVID-19 in Wuhan, China late 2019, different countries have put in place interventions such as travel ban, proper hygiene, and social distancing to slow the spread of this novel virus. We evaluated the effects of travel bans in the Australia context and projected the epidemic until May 2020. Our modelling results closely align with observed cases in Australia indicating the need for maintaining or im...

BackgroundCountries have restricted international arrivals to delay the spread of COVID-19. These measures carry a high economic and social cost. They may have little impact on COVID-19 epidemics if there are many more cases resulting from local transmission compared to imported cases. MethodsTo inform decisions about international travel restrictions, we compared the ratio of expected COVID-19 cases from international travel (assuming no travel restrictions) to the expected COVID-19 cases aris...